For my first Rock Hall ballot run-down, I sure got an interesting list of nominees to tackle.
The Black Crowes- Once again, The Hall nominated one of the most unimpressive bands of the 90's. While I do like the hits the Black Crowes had, I don't think they are that worthy for induction, let alone a second nomination. Induction Chances: 10%.
Jeff Buckley- One of the most tragic characters in the history of rock. Jeff Buckley may have only one studio album to his name before a swimming accident took his life in 1997, "Grace" remains one of the most beloved albums of the 1990's. Jeff Buckley was a critical darling in his short life but I don't think that guarantees an induction. Induction Chances: 40%.
Mariah Carey- I think Mariah is a lock this year. I say that every time she was nominated but with her third nomination and Beyoncé being eligible next year, it's now or never for Mimi. Induction Chances: 80% .
Phil Collins- Despite my reservations, Phil Collins finally got nominated as a solo artist. I expect him to be inducted with an all-star tribute for him at the ceremony. I just hope Phil is well enough to attend. Induction Chances: 95%
Melissa Etheridge- How the heck did Melissa Etheridge not get nominated on her first year of eligibility back in 2014? Well, now that she's been nominated, has been at many Rock Hall Ceremonies, has the respect of her peers and is one of the biggest women in rock of the last 30 years, I expect someone to present for Melissa Etheridge for a change later this year. Induction Chances: 90%.
Lauryn Hill- Much like Jeff Buckley, Lauryn Hill has only one studio album to her name (not counting her work with the Fugees and her infamous MTV Unplugged album). Yet "The Miseducation" had a massive impact on the future of R&B. Ms. Hill may have difficulty with the other R&B acts on the ballot despite being hip-hop adjacent not mention her history of being a no-show at her concerts may hurt her chances. However, her induction for the Staple Singers in 1999 and her tribute to Nina Simone in 2018 contradict my claims. This makes Lauryn Hill a strong wildcard. Induction Chances: 60%.
Billy Idol- I'm happy that Billy Idol got nominated again. I honestly believed he would be replaced by Bryan Adams or a returning Lenny Kravitz despite my prediction. However, Billy's chances are still pretty low and with another MTV act to contend with, they're even lower. Induction Chances: 30%.
INXS- This is the other MTV act in question. I actually really like INXS as a band and I could see the surviving members team up with different singers for the ceremony like with their final album 'Original Sin". The only thing holding them off is splitting the vote with Billy Idol and not being influential enough. Induction Chances: 75%
Iron Maiden- This has to be Iron Maiden's Year. I have a feeling that like Judas Priest, Iron Maiden could get a back door induction but I'm holding out hope they are apart of the performer class. Induction chances: 50%.
Joy Division/New Order- Much like Iron Maiden, This needs to be Joy Division and New Order's year. With Peter Hook's ABC interview last year and the joint act's consecutive nomination, I think they have a fair shot of causing an upset. If they fall short again and are possibly inducted through a side category, so be it. Induction Chances: 55%.
New Edition- As much as really like "Heart Break" and enjoy some of their early songs like "Mr. Telephone Man" and "Cool It Now". I don't think New Edition are Rock Hall worthy. Outside of Boyz II Men, I don't they're that influential. The fact that New Edition were nominated before Living Colour, Fishbone and giving Bad Brains a second chance. Not to mention the dozens of Funk bands still waiting for recognition makes me concern about the Rock Hall's priorities for black music that's not Hip-Hop. Induction Chances: 20%.
Oasis- As with JD/NO, Iron Maiden and Mariah Carey, The third time could be the charm for this Britpop band. Out of the other three timers, Oasis chances are on par with Mariah's so its likely the Gallagher brothers band is getting inducted, whether they like it or not. Induction Chances: 80%.
Pink- This is a random choice. Not a bad one I like Pink but with other great women of rock still waiting like Suzi Quatro, PJ Harvey a fellow nominee Melissa Etheridge, I think it's way too soon for Pink's Rock Hall induction. Induction Chances: 25%.
Sade- It's awesome to see this band return. However, with them on the same ballot as Luther Vandross (who I'll discuss later), Mariah Carey, New Edition and to a degree Lauryn Hill, they're chances are a mixed bag but I hope the best for Sade Adu and her band. Induction Chances: 45%.
Shakira- Another surprising nominee. Although "Hips Don't Lie" is a stone cold classic and she has a global fanbase, like with Pink, I think most Rock Hall voters will think it's too soon for Shakira, especially when Selena and Gloria Estefan/Miami Sound Machine have yet to get a nomination. Don't even get me started with Los Lobos, War and Soda Stereo. Induction Chances: 35%.
Luther Vandross- Of all of the R&B acts nominated, Luther Vandross is the most likely to be a lock (after Mariah). Luther's body of work as a recording artist, backup singer, songwriter and Disco front-man for Change alone make him worthy of Rock Hall despite his music largely being on the softer side Induction chances: 85%.
Wu-Tang Clan- Like most hip-hop after 1993, My knowledge of Wu-Tang Clan is limited. However, I like members' rap names and their mix of hip-hop and eastern philosophy, it makes them unique. Not to mention I cannot be against any rap group from the Tri-State area, I do think Wu-Tang Clan could be the sole rap inductee since most voters will bunch Lauryn Hill with the other R&B acts despite her rap pedigree. Induction Chances: 75%
Now that my thoughts are in order, Here is my early prediction on who will enter the Rock Hall this year:
-Mariah Carey
-Phil Collins
-Melissa Etheridge
-INXS
-Oasis
-Luther Vandross
-Wu-Tang Clan (If seven inductees)
Good luck to all the nominees!!